Nigeria Sees Sixth Consecutive Month of Inflation Decline, Rate Hits 18.02%

Nigeria’s inflation rate has eased to 18.02% in September 2025, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline and the first time in three years that inflation has fallen below the 20% threshold. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed a 2.1% decrease in the headline inflation rate compared to August 2025.

The September 2025 inflation rate of 18.02% is 14.68 percentage points lower than the 32.70% recorded in September 2024, signifying a substantial decrease in the rate of price increase over the past year. On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate dropped to 0.72% in September 2025, down from 0.74% in August 2025, indicating a slowdown in the rate of price increase.

The food inflation rate stood at 16.87% on a year-on-year basis, representing a 20.9 percentage point decline from September 2024. Month-on-month, food inflation was -1.57%, attributed to decreases in prices of essential food items like maize, garri, beans, and onions. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, eased to 19.53% in September 2025, down by 7.9 percentage points from September 2024. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation was 1.42%, slightly lower than the 1.43% recorded in August 2025.

Experts attribute the decline in inflation to the rebasing of the CPI, recent government policy reforms, stable energy prices, and a strengthening naira. There are expectations of further rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to stimulate economic growth. Analysts at AIICO Capital noted that consistent policy discipline, strengthened food security measures, and continued stability in energy prices are crucial for sustaining lasting price stability and curbing inflation.

The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to continue its dovish stance, potentially leading to further rate cuts to support economic growth. The recent decline in inflation supports this expectation, given the current economic conditions and the MPC’s previous actions.