China’s Population Declines Third Year In A Row

China reported on Friday that its population has declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, marking a continued downward trend after more than six decades of growth. This decline comes as the country faces a rapidly aging population and persistently low birth rates.

Once the world’s most populous nation, China was surpassed by India in 2023. In response to falling birth rates, Beijing is attempting to encourage population growth through subsidies and pro-fertility messaging.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing, the population stood at 1.408 billion by the end of 2024, down from 1.410 billion in 2023. The decline this year was less severe than the previous year when the drop was more than double that reported for 2022.

China ended its strict “one-child policy,” which was imposed in the 1980s due to overpopulation concerns, in 2016. In 2021, the government allowed couples to have up to three children, but these measures have not reversed the demographic decline. This situation poses challenges for a country that has traditionally relied on its large workforce to drive economic growth.

The falling birth rates are often attributed to the increasing cost of living and a growing number of women entering the workforce and pursuing higher education. Sociologist Yun Zhou from the University of Michigan noted that the population decline is likely to continue due to bleak economic prospects for young people and ongoing gender discrimination in the labor market.

By 2035, it is projected that nearly one-third of China’s population will be over the age of 60, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. Recent data indicated that the number of individuals aged 60 and older has reached 310.31 million, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the population, up from approximately 297 million in 2023.

Despite this decline, there was a slight increase in the birth rate, which rose to 6.77 per 1,000 people, one of the lowest rates globally. However, Zhao Litao, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute, cautioned that this uptick is unlikely to be sustained, as the number of women of childbearing age is projected to decrease significantly in the coming decades. He emphasized that unless strong policies are implemented to promote childbirth, the proportion of elderly individuals in the population will continue to rise.

In September, officials announced plans to gradually increase the statutory retirement age, which is currently set at 60—the lowest in the world—after not being raised for decades. These changes took effect on January 1.

China, as the world’s second-largest economy, is now grappling with slowing growth, compounded by the challenges posed by a rapidly aging population and declining birth rates that are putting pressure on pension and public health systems.